The defeat of a bill in our Senate does not affect the standing of the House because our Senate is appointed and thus confidence votes are not allowed.

The polls slightly favour the Conservatives - the gap is anywhere from five to ten points on any given day. But the numbers aren't high enough to suggest they would gain a majority. However, Harper (Conservative leader and PM) does consistently out-poll Dion (Liberal leader) as best person for PM. Like I said, it's crazy time here.